Space weather can disrupt satellite navigation and communication systems by triggering rapid fluctuations in the ionosphere. A new study introduces a global probabilistic forecasting model that predicts when and where ionospheric disturbances--measured by the Rate of total electron content (TEC) Index (ROTI)--are likely to persist. Unlike previous machine learning approaches, the new method embraces the bursty, heavy-tailed nature of ionospheric activity using a Bayesian framework. It also takes into account the fact that the observations in the Pierce Points between the satellites and the GNSS stations are distributed in a non-uniform way, and change in time due to the movement of the satellite. By dividing the globe into fine geographic cells and modeling disturbance duration through long-tail statistics, the system delivers robust forecasts up to six hours ahead. The approach improves the reliability of early warnings for regions where Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) perforCan We Predict Ionospheric Turbulence? A Bayesian Model Offers a Global Warning System
February 25, 2026
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Space weather can disrupt satellite navigation and communication systems by triggering rapid fluctuations in the ionosphere. A new study introduces a global probabilistic forecasting model that predicts when and where ionospheric disturbances--measured by the Rate of total electron content (TEC) Index (ROTI)--are likely to persist. Unlike previous machine learning approaches, the new method embraces the bursty, heavy-tailed nature of ionospheric activity using a Bayesian framework. It also takes into account the fact that the observations in the Pierce Points between the satellites and the GNSS stations are distributed in a non-uniform way, and change in time due to the movement of the satellite. By dividing the globe into fine geographic cells and modeling disturbance duration through long-tail statistics, the system delivers robust forecasts up to six hours ahead. The approach improves the reliability of early warnings for regions where Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) perfor
